Back in March I wrote an article “Catholics Are Rapidly Losing Ground” in which I commented on a recent Pew Survey showing dire numbers about Catholicism, including the fact that for every person who becomes Catholic, over eight leave the Church. I didn’t try to sugar-coat the news and bluntly stated that this was very bad news for the Church, and that radical changes were necessary. The article went viral (it’s our most visited article in 2025 so far), and many other articles quoted it; in particular, many non-Catholics quoted me as a Catholic source proving that Catholicism was dying in this country.

However, since that article there’s been a growing narrative that the Catholic Church in America is on the upswing; in particular, that it seems like the number of converts to Catholicism is exploding. Just this week Catholic Michael Knowles was interviewed on the Tucker Carlson Show, and Carlson joked that “everyone is becoming Catholic.”

So was I (and Pew Survey I based my article on) wrong? Is the Church shrinking, or is it experiencing a revival with a new wave of converts?

Actually, the answer is that both are true. The Church is definitely shrinking, and there does seem to be an upsurge in conversions to Catholicism. The reality is that millions of cradle Catholics, particularly young Catholics, are leaving the Church. At the same time, an increasing number of non-Catholics, particularly young non-Catholics, are becoming Catholic. Yes, the former number dwarfs the latter number (by 8 to 1), but the latter number is becoming more significant. 

But how can these two apparently disparate things both be true? The cross-traffic into and out of the Church is due to each person’s personal experience of Catholicism.

Consider the average cradle Catholic growing up in the Church today. His primary experience of Catholicism is his local parish, which is sadly often effeminate, non-threatening, and weak. It’s full of 1970’s musical ditties and insipid homilies and hordes of older women dominating parish life (picture the army of Extraordinary Ministers invading the altar when it’s time to distribute Holy Communion). There’s nothing about this experience to suggest that Catholicism has the answers to today’s nihilistic culture. It doesn’t fight against the lies young people experience every day—lies about human sexuality, lies about the family, and lies about the purpose of life. Instead it just tells them to be nice. When the average young cradle Catholic thinks this is what Catholicism represents, he simply leaves as a young adult in his search for real answers to today’s problems.

Now consider the average young non-Catholic today. He’s never stepped foot in a Catholic parish. He might know a few Catholics, but most of them aren’t serious about the Faith so they don’t talk about it much. But he does encounter and interact with Catholics online. And these Catholics are far more likely to present a Catholicism that’s masculine, robust, and offering real answers (the Church’s answers!) to today’s problems. It rejects the weak Catholicism that became dominant starting in the 1970’s. This is attractive, and so a growing number of those non-Catholics are deciding to become Catholic. Further, they’re much more likely to then enter the Church through a parish that’s more traditional and more unapologetic about being Catholic. 

So yes, the Catholic Church is shrinking—far too many souls are leaving Christ’s Church. But there’s much room for hope, because more and more people are recognizing that Catholicism has the words of eternal life, words given to us by Christ Himself. Our challenge now as Catholics is to transform more and more parishes to become hubs for the revival taking place, to become those masculine, robust, traditional parishes that answers today’s problems. Then we’ll have far fewer cradle Catholics leaving, and increase the already-growing number of non-Catholics entering.

Come, Holy Spirit!