MAGA’s Coming Demographic Apocalypse

If my recent conversations with young conservatives are any indication, MAGA is in trouble. 

Over the past few months I’ve spoken with a number of young people, primarily young men, all of whom voted for Donald Trump in 2024. For some it was their first time voting in a presidential election. Although they all voted for Trump, they weren’t all the same.

Some were enthusiastic MAGA supporters; others simply wanted to keep Kamala out of office.

Some are political junkies; others barely keep up with what’s going on in DC.

Some identified strongly with the Republican Party; others consider themselves independent.

Regardless of their differences, they all had something in common: every single one of them was furious with Donald Trump. The Iran war, the coverup of the Epstein files, and especially his careless attitude toward the economy and rising inflation…they were all disgusted with Trump and many “were done” with the GOP. While some could articulate it better than others, they all associated much more with the “America First” wing of conservatism than the “MAGA” wing (I’ll explain this split more in a moment). 

The same could not be said of Trump voters my age and older. Most are still firmly in the MAGA camp, and still support Trump and his policies. 

The recent defeat of congressman Thomas Massie in his Republican primary reveals a similar divide. Massie was the “America First” candidate, and his opponent, Ed Gallrein, was the Trump-supported MAGA pick. While Gallrein won with 55% of the total vote, exit polls show that Massie won every age group except the 65+ demographic, where he lost overwhelmingly (only 35% of that vote). The younger the age group, the more it voted for Massie—the 18-29 age demographic voted a resounding 78.5% in his favor. Clearly there’s a divide in the GOP, and it breaks down by age.

How can there be a split between MAGA and America First? Doesn’t making America great again mean putting America first? According to America Firsters, apparently not, based on the actions of the Trump Administration in his first 16 months in office. Those who identify with America First (either openly or implicitly) question the president’s decision to go to war with Iran; many of those I spoke with believe the conflict to be more in Israel’s interests than America’s (a nickname for MAGA among many young conservatives is “MIGA”—Make Israel Great Again). Further, they are frustrated with the mixed messages surrounding the release of the Epstein files—Trump and MAGA first supported the disclosure, but now downplay it, even attacking those (like Massie) who want the files fully released. 

What most infuriates the young people I spoke with is the economy. They feel increasingly left out, with no way to achieve even their parents’ standard of living. They don’t care about the geopolitics of Iran and Israel and the Middle East as much as they care about finding a way to buy a modest house and afford their grocery and gas bills. And they (rightly) place many of those rising prices at the feet of what’s going on in Iran. Their experience and their opinions about it are diametrically opposed to the attitude of President Trump, who when asked about the economic impact of the Iran War stated, “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.” 

Well, Trump may not care, and by extension MAGA may not care, but young people care very much.

The economic disconnect between old and young (and therefore between MAGA and America First) is particularly clear in how each group views the role of the stock market in our economy. Trump has always interpreted a rising stock market as evidence of a strong economy. Many of his older supporters feel the same way. But that’s not the perspective of young people: they see it as more evidence of being left behind.

And these young people are right. Consider the S&P 500, a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Many consider it a benchmark of the US economy, reading its rise as an automatic positive indicator of the overall health of our economy. However, as every young person knows, wages are not keeping pace with that inflating stock market. 

In 1960, a person could buy 96 shares of the S&P 500 with a median household income. In 1990, he could buy 89 shares. In 2010, only 43 shares. How many shares could one buy today with the median household income? Only 16. Why would a young person be excited by the stock market rising when he knows that his income won’t keep up, leaving him more and more out of luck?

If the MAGA movement wants to live past Trump, it needs to address the demographic split, and so far it’s not doing a good job. Any criticism of MAGA is most often met with insults. Any questioning of the U.S. role in the Middle East is met with screams of “antisemite!” And any complaints about the economy are met with questions about the critic’s patriotism. None of these responses will bring young people back into the MAGA fold.

A perfect example of MAGA’s inability to reach young people is how it reacts to Nick Fuentes, a leading figure of the America First movement. Although I identify more with America First than MAGA, I’m no fan of Fuentes. Yet he resonates with young people for a reason, and just calling him a racist or antisemite—or thinking everyone sympathetic to the America First cause is identical to Fuentes and also therefore a racist or antisemite—only alienates MAGA even further from a generation that’s beyond weary of namecalling.

I grew up in an era where even the slightest accusation of being a racist or antisemite was political death. Too many MAGA supporters are under the illusion that we still live in that era, so they believe just branding Fuentes—as well as Tucker Carlson, Candice Owens, Dave Smith, Megyn Kelly, and other America First proponents—with those terms will make them go away. Hey, it worked in the 90’s. But now being branded an antisemite by some MAGA boomer is practically a badge of honor. Not because young people are actually antisemitic (only a small minority are), but because they realize that their legitimate critiques are hitting home and there’s no defense against them other than name-calling. Young people are tired of conservative critics being demonized by Trump and his MAGA lieutenants while evidence piles up that many of the criticisms being lobbed have real weight.

A final note for my MAGA readers: if your first reaction to this piece is to be upset at me or at other America Firsters, then you don’t get my point. The purpose of this article is not to criticize MAGA policies (I’ve done that elsewhere); it’s intended as a wake-up call. If you want MAGA to avoid its coming demographic collapse, you need to take the concerns of young people more seriously. Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, Ben Shapiro, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, and other MAGA mouthpieces are not doing you any favors. Instead of just insulting young conservatives or their leaders, perhaps consider actually listening to them, recognizing that perhaps their desire to put America first is the best way to make America great again.