The Network That Led to Pope Leo XIV’s Election

As the cardinal proto-deacon concluded the announcement of the new pope, 69-year-old Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost stepped onto the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica. He wore a white cassock, a white zucchetto, a red pellegrina, a red-and-gold stole, and a pectoral cross. He had chosen the name Leo XIV. Many were surprised by the election of another pope from the Americas—especially from the United States. Cardinal Prevost had not been widely considered papabile, nor was he well-known to the general public.

Inside the Curia, however, a different narrative emerges. Data gathered from the Annuario Pontificio for the years 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024 provides insight into the trajectory of Bishop—and later Cardinal—Robert Prevost’s career. He began his service in the Roman Curia in 2019 as a member of the (then) Congregation for the Clergy. By the end of 2020, he had also been appointed a member of the (then) Congregation for Bishops. He continued to serve in both roles through 2022.

These appointments meant that, by the end of 2021, he had shared curial membership with 34 cardinals, rising to 36 by the end of 2022. This represented an increase in his network from 22 percent to 23 percent of all cardinals. Everything changed in 2023 when he was appointed Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops. 

By the end of that year, Cardinal Prevost held positions in 11 different curial bodies, including the Dicastery for Evangelization, the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, the Dicastery for Oriental Churches, the Dicastery for Bishops, the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, the Dicastery for the Clergy, the Dicastery for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, the Dicastery for Culture and Education, the Dicastery for Legislative Texts, several Permanent Interdicasterial Commissions, and the Pontifical Commission for Vatican City State. This made him the cardinal with the broadest familiarity and network within the Roman Curia, with shared membership alongside 103 other cardinals—approximately 66 percent of all cardinals serving in the Curia. He rose dramatically from being ranked 60th in terms of curial familiarity to holding the number one position.

Cardinal Prevost’s trajectory outpaced those of long-time Curia members. For instance, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle had been part of the Roman Curia since 2012 and had consistently ranked among the top five most networked cardinals since at least 2021. In 2022, Tagle held the top position for cardinal connections within the Curia, but in 2023, Prevost surpassed him. The only other cardinal who experienced a similarly steep rise in network connections was Cardinal Fernández. One might say we should be grateful to the Holy Spirit for guiding the cardinals with enough common sense not to elect him pope. 

A comparative table of cardinal familiarity over three years is provided below.

Comparison of the percentage of cardinals that shared the same curial bodies over three years 

What does this all mean? The data suggests that Cardinal Prevost was well-known among the cardinals serving in the Roman Curia, even if he remained obscure to the broader public. This may help explain how he came to be considered by his peers as a candidate for the papacy, despite not being a visible figure in public discourse.

Serving in multiple curial bodies also gave him significant influence over Church policies beginning in 2023. He became familiar with the inner workings, dynamics, and politics of the Roman Curia. While his institutional knowledge may not run as deep as that of more entrenched figures like Cardinals Parolin or Tagle, his relatively brief tenure may have spared him from becoming overly enmeshed in the system. Moreover, his wide network provides him with considerable social capital, enhancing his ability to influence and collaborate with other cardinals.

What might this mean for the papacy of Pope Leo XIV? His deep curial connections could enable him to reform the Curia more effectively. He possesses enough insider knowledge to understand the system’s mechanics, but his recent arrival allows for a level of objectivity that longer-serving members might lack. His relationships with fellow cardinals—developed through shared service—could also make it easier to build consensus and implement necessary changes.

This marks a departure from both Pope John Paul II and Francis, who were essentially outsiders to the Curia. While both of these popes enacted curial reforms, the effectiveness of those reforms remains a matter of debate. Pope Leo XIV, by contrast, may represent a new type of reformer: one who knows the system intimately but is not bound by it. Now the question is, if he is planning to reform the Curia again, what direction will he take?